“Blame it on the weather”

Expert Eye with

John Shepherd

Owner and Managing Director of Partridges

• Is our café a hero or a villain?
• “The battle for optimism and morale in retail”
• “Sustainable confusion”
• “What to do about January?”
• “Is the Christmas boom sustainable?”

For us at Partridges, the weather only started in 2004 when we moved to the Duke of York Square. Until that time, weather was something that happened to other people

Until 2004 we were located in Sloane Street, where we had a constant flow of people passing by the front door, customers could park directly outside the shop and we were close to both a major bus stop and the tube station. Bad weather would have put customers off, but we probably subscribed to the comments of Sir Philip Rose in that “weather is for wimps.” Or put another way, “A bad grocer blames his thermometers.”

However, all this changed when we relocated. We are now set back at least 30 yards from the pavement, albeit fronting onto the beautiful Duke of York Square and adjacent to the King’s Road. When it rains, those 30 yards become like 3000 miles without an umbrella. Basil Fawlty would no doubt have cursed his clientele, thinking that after at least two million years of British weather they should be used to it by now. Of course we would never think like that, but there is no doubt about it – the weather does have a great affect on sales, although perhaps one more complex than you initially might think.

I recently produced a graph to chart the ebb and flow of sales through the seasons, from which I can see that sales gradually improve through January and February to March, when the first flush of spring and a burst of better weather produces extra staff at the tills providing 8.5% of the annual turnover. However, this improvement is brought to an end by the Easter period and the school holidays. When Easter falls is determined by the Paschal Calendar and never occurs on the same day twice for at least a generation, or so I believe. I tried to read up about it once but can only recall being more confused at the end of the explanation than I was at the beginning. So, April falls to 7.6% of annual turnover in contrast to the temperature which keeps rising.

May, at 8.5%, is slightly higher than June at 8.2%, but this is because of a local event (The Chelsea Flower Show) and two Bank Holidays that serve to drive footfall to Chelsea. Once again, July drops to 7.9% in contrast to the outside temperature which keeps rising, but this is again due to a local anomaly. A lot of residents and many of our customers leave London from mid-July and return at the end of August. This accounts for August sales, amazingly, being not much higher than January or February at 6.9%. Things get back to normal in September at 8.1% of the annual sales, and from then on our sales growth is at odds with the outside temperature decline. October stands at 8.8% despite the half term, and November at 10% and December at 11.8% are all about the festive rush.

So from the above summary, it might be concluded that it is the traditional structure of modern life that dictates sales rather than seasonal temperatures. Yet on a day-to-day basis, the impact of the weather is striking. Our busiest day is Saturday, but from a sunny Saturday to a rainy Saturday the difference can be many thousands of pounds. Heatwaves are good, at least initially, where spending goes up but average spend goes down. However, after a few days this effect wears off.