15 April 2021, 09:39 AM
  • From the big shop to buying local, indies have been tasked with responding to erratic consumer behaviour throughout the pandemic. Once the restrictions lift, what’s next?
Experts predict consumer trends after Covid

Without a doubt, the word of the past year was ‘unprecedented’. It filled headlines and TV screens as experts scrambled to make sense of the Covid-19 pandemic and the way it was changing our lives. But even as the virus appears to be loosening its grip on the UK, the food sector is left with questions: are Covid’s influences here to stay or will things go back to normal after the restrictions are lifted?

According to Morgaine Gaye, food futurologist, we should give up the idea of a return to ‘normal’. “I don’t think anything will go back to what it was,” she tells Speciality Food. “You often hear people say ‘I can’t wait for things to get back to normal.’ That’s not going to ever happen again. This is normal.”

Online vs in-store

In some cases, Covid has simply solidified trends that were already taking shape. Online food shopping was making marginal gains, but since the pandemic hit it has soared to record highs. As Covid-19 fades, online shopping will continue – though not to as great an extent.

“The pandemic accelerated the growth of online shopping, and whilst we expect to see some slowing of the trend, we don’t expect it to return to pre-Covid levels,” explains Michael Freedman, senior shopper insight manager at IGD. Independents have found success with click and collect, delivery and even drive-through models, creating new ways to cater to customers locally and nationally as demand for their products grew.

While the online trend will continue, Kevin Flynn, director of retail strategy at ThoughtWorks, believes real-world experiences are “far from dead”. A recent survey by Gekko corroborates this, with 70% of respondents planning to visit stores as much or more than pre-pandemic once non-essential retail reopens. “As we emerge from the pandemic there will be a surge in people wanting to get outside and engage with eating and shopping once again,” Kevin says.

One trend that may vanish in the post-Covid world, however, is the big weekly shop. Once consumers feel safe enough to visit the shops more often, this will bring a return of the ‘top-up’ shop. But Michael believes this will create new opportunities for indies. “This return to top-up shopping and a growth in confidence to ‘shop around’ is an opportunity for specialist retailers, especially as provenance and supporting local businesses is a shopper priority, which once again, has been driven by the pandemic.”

As retailers approach the end of lockdown and Covid-19 restrictions, retailers should focus on building loyalty with existing customers and attracting new customers by positioning themselves as a new shopping destination. “We see opportunities to attract people to shop in-person at specialist retailers to hand-pick items to supplement their regular online grocery shopping. This is particularly appealing to those shoppers who are looking to focus more on quality when purchasing food and groceries. For some shoppers, there is an emphasis on food shopping becoming an experience to enjoy, given the current restrictions relating to social life.”

The health trend

Speciality Food has documented the rise of the health shopper over the course of the pandemic, but it’s important to note that this trend will stay relevant in a post-Covid world.

“Nearly nine in 10 shoppers are actively trying to improve their diet in some way, whether this is through eating more fruit and vegetables, reducing sugar or drinking more fluids,” Michael says.

The immunity trend will also be of particular interest to the everyday consumer. “Everything will be immunity – ‘with added immunity’, ‘this helps with your immunity’. That’ll be the newest marketing watch word,” Morgaine says.

Functional foods, which offer benefits in addition to their basic nutritional value, will also play into consumers’ desire for food experiences. “We’ve already seen the beginning of this trend of people wanting food that does something – it makes you calm, it makes you sleepy, it makes you feel something not just ‘oh that’s delicious’,” Morgaine says.

New consumer research carried by taste and nutrition company Kerry found that the functional beverage category will gain traction as new products target holistic attitudes towards health, diet and lifestyle. Its survey of consumers in the UK and elsewhere in Europe revealed that when asked about health concerns that have become more important since Covid-19, 59% said immunity, and half said mental health.

“Consumers are willing to pay a premium for beverages with a functional benefit and will repurchase if that benefit is proven to work. This means that manufacturers need to use ingredients that are backed by science and trusted by consumers,” says Breda Kelly, Kerry’s nutritional beverage lead for Europe and Russia.

Back to basics

As the popularity of functional foods shows, consumers expect more from their food today. But beyond this, they also want it to tell the story of where it comes from or how it was produced – and this desire is only going to grow. “We are moving into a golden era of food,” Kevin says. “The quality of food is being reframed by the consumer to incorporate broader perspectives about topics such as importance to local economies, the environment, climate change and animal welfare. I believe fine food is well placed to be at the forefront of this debate.”

Morgaine and Michael agree that food awareness is growing. “We’re just caring a little bit more about our food,” Morgaine says, “and I think that will definitely continue. I think what consumers want is meaning. People want to be involved, they want to feel connected. They want to find ways to connect with people.” For a retailer, this means continuing to focus on what they do best – connecting with customers, telling the stories of local products and showing shoppers why they should care about the food they eat.

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