What are the big trends to know in home baking?

The Great British Bake Off Effect might have lost its sheen, but The Covid Effect is still driving shoppers to bake sweet and savoury creations at home. We all remember empty shelves during the pandemic, with the home baking aisle particularly stark, but since then the appetite for quality has risen – indeed, perhaps, at least in part, thanks to the time consumers finally had spare to explore, understand and appreciate the markers of higher quality baking ingredients. 

“Home baking as a category undoubtedly peaked during Covid, but it’s left a legacy behind,” agrees Tudor Evans, head of commercial at Holleys Fine Foods. “Lockdown introduced a lot of new customers to home baking and to a degree that mark is still there. At Holleys we focus on the higher quality brands such as Wessex Mill, Marriages and Wilton Wholefoods, as well as Vermont maple syrup, and Menier and Green & Black’s chocolate.”

According to recent research conducted by Tate & Lyle, UK shoppers recognise that good quality baked goods have high quality ingredients at their heart. The study found that one third of consumers believe taste to be the most important factor when judging the quality of a bake – and when you add fine food consumers’ recognition of the other markers of quality (for example small-batch, traditional methods, artisanal), this proves to be a valuable opportunity for Speciality Food readers. 

Alice Holmes, brand manager at Tate & Lyle Sugars, explained, “Great bakes start with great ingredients. It’s something we see time and again – when bakers commit to using high-quality ingredients, the results don’t just taste better, they sell better. Today’s consumers are more informed and more interested in where their food comes from, which gives bakeries, coffee shops cafes and hotels a real opportunity to differentiate themselves.”

Bertie Matthews, managing director of Matthews Cotswold Flour, agrees. “Overall, in-home baking occasions dipped last year as people chased convenience, but value in the category held up and even nudged up as shoppers traded into products that work better and tell a story (origin, craft, sustainability). That’s what we see in our own sales, and it mirrors wider market signals: flour expenditure rose while usage occasions fell, which screams fewer bakes, better bakes.”

There are two possible drivers of this, says Bertie, “Skills and standards in post-lockdown bakers, they now care about protein, performance and consistency. Speciality baked goods (think sourdough) are still pulling value through the aisle. Plus, trust and transparency or the “sourfaux” debate – this has made shoppers more ingredient literate and willing to pay for the real thing. We lean into that, short ingredient lists, honest specs, and clear milling and farm stories.”

Consistency and reliability are cornerstones in what shoppers are looking for from their bakes, and increasingly trust high quality ingredients to deliver this better than their poorer quality, mass-produced counterparts. “The shopper who purchases high quality flour is purposeful, judges on bake results and is happy to pay a little more for reliability,” says Bertie. 

One of the reasons consumers might opt to bake items at home is that they can trust that the ingredients list is short and processing minimal. The same goes for the items that go into their creations. “We sell to ingredients label-readers who want clear provenance and minimal processing, especially after the sourdough labelling spotlight.”

Plus, although a customer may be a supermarket own brand-buyer now, this isn’t to say that they’ve nailed their colours to the mast. “We’ve seen shoppers move from own label to named brands like Matthews Cotswold Flour,” says Bertie, “this could be for something different or looking for a more sustainable option like Regen flour. Specialist flours are where brands are outperforming own label on volume in home baking.”

The characteristics of high quality ingredients

Whether customers are familiar with the world of fine food or dipping their toe into it every now and then, there are key markers to great quality ingredients. Attractive packaging is one, says Tudor. “The branding of Menier chocolate is clearly high-end so appeals to shoppers looking to level-up their home baking ingredients, plus the stitched top of Wessex Mill flours adds to their appearance of being artisanal and high quality. People are of course going to need to spend more on these products than on what they’d buy in the supermarkets, but I believe that people have more confidence in these products. They trust that they’ll get a high quality and consistent result, and that is worth paying more for.”

Consistency is also a matter of vital importance for the team at Matthews Cotswold Flour. “People are looking for stable protein and performance across batches in terms of loaf height, crumb and dough handling,” says Bertie. “They’re also looking for clarity around origin and grain type, and honest descriptors when it comes to language around sustainability and terms like ‘sourdough’.”

With dairy products, particularly milk, being so commoditised, some education is required for consumers to really understand the value of high-quality produce. The Estate Dairy is facing this challenge head-on, producing proudly unhomogenized milk, butter and yoghurts in a bid to do better for shoppers as well as the farmers making milk with an eye to tradition and quality. 

“Our butter is cultured and milk and yoghurts unhomogenized, and this makes such a difference to the taste and final quality of the bakes our customers create,” says Lauren Feather, head of creative at The Estate Dairy. 

A mission to create better quality dairy products was at the heart of the brand when it very first launched, explains Lauren, with its founders keen to demonstrate the difference that sourcing from passionate, small-scale farmers can make. This dedication to quality shines through in the final products, with their investment of time and time-honoured skills in terms of culturing their butter and not homogenizing their milk clear for all to see and enjoy. 

“Our products bring a richer flavour to home bakes,” says Lauren, “and the fact that they’re more natural than mass-produced dairy ingredients means that they’re more enjoyable to work with, too.”

Every detail counts

When it comes to flavouring bakes, quality is just as important as it is with the foundational ingredients says Nerene Willis, brand manager of Taylor & Colledge at RH Amar. “Shoppers are increasingly health conscious and looking for clean ingredients decks, which is where Taylor & Colledge extracts really shine,” she begins. “Natural ingredients and a lack of artificial flavours and colours are more attractive than ever to British shoppers, and while vanilla is our hero flavour” – and, arguably, the most popular flavour in British home baking – “our customers are also looking to experiment with other tastes.”

The brand already has a hugely popular trio of flavours beyond vanilla – including almond, lemon and orange – but there is even more for home bakers to get excited about, with the launch of coconut and rose extracts on the horizon. 

With consumers getting more adventurous than ever, such extracts could become invaluable for time-poor shoppers who want to make great tasting and high quality bakes from store cupboard ingredients. 

Plus, shoppers – particularly those purchasing ingredients in fine food shops – aren’t any more likely to compromise when it comes to provenance of their extracts than they are their flours, so Taylor & Colledge’s 120-year history and sound sustainability credentials will stand them in good stead when it comes to consumer trust.

Seasonality sells

To some extent, we can all pinpoint on a calendar when certain home baking ingredients are going to fly off the shelves. Stir Up Sunday, which this year falls on 23rd November (mark your diaries), will no doubt see sales of dried fruit rise, but beyond that home baking tends to be a reasonably steady stream of opportunity. 

Jam making, however, is an underutilised opportunity for retailers. “September and October is peak jam-making season, says Tudor, and whether or not people are preserving their homegrown produce or not we always see a spike in preserving sugar sales.

Home baking trends

Bertie Matthews, Matthews Cotswold Flour shares what he thinks is trending this year.

Pizza-grade flour at home: The Ooni generation keeps growing; “00” remains a gateway to premium flour. 

Real sourdough beyond bread: Sourdough pasta and cross-over ferments are moving mainstream. Expect shoppers to seek authenticity on pack.

Rye and heritage grains: Flavour, fibre and a point of difference; good rye is back in chefs’ and home bakers’ rotations. We see this in our spelt/rye lines.

Credible ‘regen’: Retailers are asking for measurable, UK farm-led regen flour not just a logo. So our commitment to turn to majority regen with our traceable British Regen flour is the future.

Brands that teach: With baking occasions down year-on-year, the brands winning are the ones removing friction (clear recipes, hydration guidance, troubleshooters) and turning one-off bakes into habits.